Can any single country make a difference to climate change? I could make this a short post by just saying, YES. That said, I will give a few more details.
Bad Reasons To Do Nothing
The other day I was hearing about someone who was relatively well-informed talk about how the US couldn’t really achieve anything on climate change. To be clear this person was not a skeptic about climate change. Obviously, if you don’t believe in climate change then a lack of enthusiasm to take action is to be expected. This post isn’t seeking to persuade skeptics; it is about those who have already given up.
This person agreed about the connection between greenhouse gases (GHGs) and climate change. Climate change was seen as a problem, but the person’s viewpoint seemed to be that the US is but one country — so the actions the US takes don’t matter. Their perspective seemed to be that we are doomed so let’s all get a big gas guzzling truck while we wait for the apocalypse.
Countries Shouldn’t Be Modest
Yes, it is true that that China is now the biggest emitter of greenhouse gases (32% of global emissions, Global Carbon Budget | Fossil fuel CO emissions increase again in 2024). While there are reasons for limited optimism from China on the emissions front it seems reasonable to be believe that China’s emissions will remain very high and a big problem. Decarbonizing China is a — arguably the — major issue.
What is more, as India gets richer one can expect that its share of GHG emissions will go up. These are very populous countries, so it isn’t too surprisingly if they end up as top emitters. There is much that can (and should) be done all around to allow people to have better standards of living all while lowering emissions.
But China and India isn’t the entire story. Despite having a significantly smaller population than China or India the US still manages to emit 13% of global emissions. Those of us living in the US shouldn’t be modest; we are making a disproportionate contribution to the problem.
Given that there is plenty of impact that we in the US have on the world, let’s try and make the influence as positive as possible. Unlike the efforts of San Marino, a significant reduction in emissions from the US would actually be quite noticeable in the world figures.
Can Any Single Country Make A Difference?
But the reason to change doesn’t just apply to the big countries. All countries can have a genuine impact. Even a country with a modest share of global emissions can make a difference. Let’s just think through the logic.
Apocalyptically Bad Worst-Case Scenario
The worst-case scenario is that greenhouse gas emissions cause dramatic and unpredictable escalations. For example, heatwaves and drought driven by human-made climate change cause massive forest fires which emit more carbon dioxide which creates more heatwaves which cause more forest fires etc… Basically, everything goes as badly as it can, and humans are wiped out. I’m naturally optimistic so I’m not betting on that but even if this grim world is the one we are moving towards cutting emissions can still help. After all, if there is to be a global catastrophe let’s delay it as much as possible by cutting whatever emissions we can. Why not postpone the suffering and pray for a miracle?
Not Quite As Bad Scenarios
In these scenarios all human life won’t be wiped out but, to be clear, this does not mean that everything is just fine. But in these ‘humans won’t go extinct’ scenarios, it is even easier to come up with a reason for a country to take action. These scenarios suggest that climate change will cause disasters and deaths. Some of these didn’t really need to occur — with the right action earlier these could have been avoided. Still, failures in the past don’t justify future failures. Every bit of progress going forward means fewer deaths. A medium sized country, like Ireland, might not be able to move the global needle too much on emissions, but it can impact emissions a little bit. In these scenarios, a fraction of a degree could well be the difference between life and death for some. The medium-sized country’s actions could mean the world for at least some people.
….every little bit of avoided future temperature increases results in less warming that would otherwise persist for essentially forever.
NASA, not dated
Social Influence And Technology
Social influence changes individual’s actions, and it also matters for countries. When a country takes an action, it gives re-assurance to others who might want to take same action that they will have companions in the endeavor. Action also puts pressure on others to do the same. If you are worried about China’s emissions, you are much more likely to influence China to do more if you are taking action yourself.
What is more when a country invests in mitigating climate change it often makes the technology better and cheaper. The better the technology is then the easier it will be for India and other countries to get rich without the emissions that have traditionally been associated with getting richer. Taking action in the US helps others take action.
Greenhouse gas emissions are often seen as a prisoners’ dilemma. In such situations seemingly sensible private decisions lead to collection disaster. But when you know you are in a prisoners’ dilemma you don’t throw your hands up and say “unfortunately that is the game”. You act to change the game. You do everything you can to avoid the collective disaster.
If you believe that climate change is a problem saying, “disasters are coming but there is nothing that we can do”, is a really foolish response.
Read: NASA, (not dated),”Is it too late to prevent climate change?”, Is it too late to prevent climate change? – NASA Science, accessed July 20th, 2025
