Nate Silver’s The Signal and the Noise has much to recommend it. It is about prediction generally, rather than being focused specifically on baseball or politics where he built his reputation. He also notes challenges with statistical models, specifically the problem of overfitting. The Problem Of Overfitting A problem Silver addresses is the overfitting of mathematical…
Surviving Paranoia
I don’t like Paranoia. Excessive fear of other people is a major social problem and encouraging it is just plain wrong. We need to concentrate on getting past it, surviving paranoia. Do Only The Paranoid Survive? Thus I’m not a fan of Andy Grove’s “Only the Paranoid Survive” (Grove 1996). It is not that there…
Are We Good Decision Makers?
An interesting debate in the decision-making field is: Are we good decision-makers? The Debate: Are We Good Decision Makers? This debate occurs most contentiously between supporters of Amos Tversky & Daniel Kahneman and those in Gerd Gigerenzer’s camp. Supporters of Tversky and Kahneman argue that in the 1970’s the core assumption in social science was…
A Taxonomy Of Nudging
One of the most popular ideas in the behavioural sciences at the moment is “nudging”. This is applying a light touch to encourage people towards certain actions. People often are a little unclear on what a nudge is. As such it is helpful to have a taxonomy of nudging. What Is A Nudge? What Then…
Marketing And The Republican Autopsy
The Republican’s recently issued an interesting competitive analysis of how the party’s marketing operations stack up. [Published in 2013]. The Growth and Opportunity Project has been dubbed the “Republican Autopsy”. This basically accepted that the 2012 national elections were a disaster for the party. So what can we learn from marketing and the Republican autopsy? Criticism…
Customers As Liabilities
In marketing we often talk about customers being assets. The relationship a business holds with its customers is a key source of profits. As such it was a deliberately provocative move when the editor of Marketing Science described some loyalty schemes — including the classic stamp based programs — as seeing customers as liabilities. Why…
CLV And Limited Capacity
Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) is a great thing to calculate. It encourages marketers to take the numbers seriously. It helps finance people see the numerical basis of marketing. Calculating CLV encourages you to treat customers well; they are valuable and you have the numbers to prove it. Finally marketing’s influence probably increases when people think…
Defaults Matter
There is a wonderful 2003 Science article about how people react to default choices. The conclusion? Defaults matter. Why Does This Matter? The article impresses for a number of reasons including: Saving lives matters. While it is not a theory paper the theoretical implications are substantial. What are people’s preferences — what they say or…
The Politician’s Fallacy
Yes Minister, a British TV show, explained a logical mistake called The Politician’s Fallacy. The politician sees a problem and feels that “Something must be done”, They find an approach and say “This is something”, Then they make a logical leap, “this must be done”. Measuring National Culture Numerical analysis of culture in business reminds…
Ron Paul’s Marketing Lesson
Politics can teach us a lot about marketing. Ron Paul’s story teaches us more than most. I’m not a Ron Paul follower but that doesn’t mean we can’t learn from what he has done well and his problems. What is Ron Paul’s marketing lesson? The Marketing Concept When we teach marketing we suggest trying to…