With the World Cup about to start [written in 2014] it is an excellent time to consider what statistics can tell us about sport and how people think about probabilities. So who will win the world Cup? Soccernomics Stefan Szymanski has a series of books explaining the economics of sport. His book with Simon Kuper…
Category: Management Theory
Survey Methodology And The Future Of West Ham United
West Ham United, the English football (soccer) club I support, hasn’t seen much recent success. (Written in 2014, as I revise this in 2021 things are better). The fans, in a fine example of optimism bias, expect the team to win while playing with a certain élan. In 2011, after a disastrous few years, Sam Allardyce was…
Making Your Future Self Happy
I’m traveling to my ten-year MBA reunion [written in 2014]. As such, it seems an appropriate time to consider how we predict the future. Ten years ago I would never have predicted that I’d be a marketing professor living in Canada [now in US]. Interestingly, I wonder whether I would even have wanted to become…
Bidding For Candy
My Easter post on candy bars leaves me pondering where academia would be without chocolate. Many experiments over the years have entailed giving experimental subjects, mostly students, candy. You give them this either as compensation or as part of the experiment. Then you often see them bidding for candy. Why Candy? Interestingly candy may work…
Deep Rationality
Rationality is a topic which you can devote years of study to without making much progress. This is because one problem is that everyone means different things by rationality. It is not just marketers disagreeing with economists, who are disagreeing with psychologists. There are also major cleavages within disciplines. One perspective from evolutionary psychologists is…
People, Buses, And Another Complaint About Jim Collins
Jim Collin’s books are well written but often readers, and probably Collins himself, may think Collins’ books contain “scientifically proven” advice. At best, Collin’s work should only suggest approaches. What is the complaint about Jim Collins? A Complaint About Jim Collins Many scholars criticize Collins’ methodology. I sympathize with many of the critics. Here, however,…
Managerial Advice From The Trolls In Frozen
I recently read the following: “People often regret not getting rid of problem staff soon enough”. This struck me as emblematic of everything wrong with business advice. It was glib, unsupported by evidence, and designed to resonate with our biases. Better to take managerial advice from the trolls in Frozen. Regret Sure some managers will…
The Mismeasure Of Man
Stephen Jay Gould could be a polarizing figure in academic circles. He is an evolutionary scientist quoted at the Creation Museum (which opposes the idea of evolution). Still, he was an interesting writer who did an excellent job of engaging the general public. His book rebutting the arguments of the Bell Curve, The Mismeasure of…
Scarcity Theory: A Hammer, But A Good Hammer
Mullainathan and Shafir’s new book Scarcity [written in 2014] explains that people make some debatable decisions when a resource is scarce because of the stress the shortage causes. They introduce Scarcity Theory: a hammer, but a good hammer. Poverty Leads To Worse Decision-Making The authors help explain poverty sometimes encourages people to take decisions that…
Seeing The Big Picture Behind People’s Attitudes
An interesting psychological phenomenon is the tendency to ascribe stable attitudes to people rather than consider the context. I can only speak to where I’ve worked — the UK, US, Canada — but it seems pervasive to me. Seeing the big picture behind people’s attitudes is important. Inferring Attitudes Despite Writer Having No Choice Early…
