Vaclav Smil’s book — Numbers Don’t Lie — is a helpful approach to understanding the world. He is able to layout what numbers mean answering a number of important questions around transportation, food, energy etc… The numbers are very helpful. That said, even though he mostly just outlines numbers you can see his perspective coming…
Category: Decision Making
Progress Exists And Is A Good Thing
Matt Ridley is an interesting writer. A popular science/ideas writer he gives you his thoughts on a wide variety of subjects. I do admire his willingness to adopt an overarching narrative. To be honest, at times it can seem a bit too much for my tastes. His libertarian-esque views tend to see him damning a…
What Are People Like? A Categorization
Before designing any intervention to influence them it is worth asking: What Are People Like? Derek Ireland in The Behaviorally Informed Organization presents what he calls a Boundedly Rational Complex Consumer Continuum, the shorthand being the BRCCC. (I am unsure why he thinks that is a pleasant and memorable acronym. I feel that I may…
Reduce Sludge In Your Organization
In this post, and the next, I will highlight some important ideas from The Behaviourally Informed Organization. (It is Canadian — this is not just me reverting to UK spelling). The first point I want to touch upon are the barriers that hinder people from taking the actions you want them to take. Such barriers…
The Pseudo Profound Statement
I have previously written about how disappointed I was by Jerry Muller’s The Tyranny of Metrics, see here and here. Today I will look at a broader problem that his book exhibits. Namely ‘The Pseudo Profound Statement’. I see this in a lot of places not just in Muller’s work. Be Careful With A Pseudo…
Anecdotal Evidence Is Problematic In Justifying Arguments
Jerry Muller’s book on The Tyranny of Metrics argues that metrics are overused. (I have discussed other frustrations with the book here). Muller, however, very neatly illustrates the problem with his approach. Anecdotal evidence, by this here I mean stories not rigorously detailed, is problematic in justifying an argument. Basically he throws some numbers into…
Are American Minds Coddled?
The Coddling of the American Mind, Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt‘s book, is a great read. It is full of interesting stories about where society, and universities in particular, are going wrong. I have a decent amount of sympathy with their arguments. It is important that we preserve free speech. The cost being that sometimes…
Catalysts And Persuasion: Changing Minds
I enjoy a nice book on persuasion and Jonah Berger‘s on catalysts and persuasion is certainly one of them. (They make excellent gifts at any time of the year). His prior books were enjoyable and generally illuminating. The Catalyst follows in that tradition. (Although I do think it is funny when writing one of these…
Do Generalists Triumph?
I am a marketing professor, who has been an accountant working in politics, and who was educated as an ancient historian. As such, it is perhaps no surprise that I am naturally drawn to the arguments in Range. In this David Epstein lays out his case for having a diverse range of skills. His argument…
Bayes’ Theorem And Common Sense
Today we look at Bayes’ theorem and common sense highlighting the role of prior beliefs. How Should We Think About Probabilities? There is a big rift in the way people think about probabilities. (This is in addition to he normal challenges doing the math). Events either happen or they don’t. We can think of probabilities…
