Departing from my usual structure of analyzing a single topic I thought I’d illustrate decision making lessons with examples from the World Cup. (This post on the 6 decision-making lessons from the world cup was written in 2014). Three Decision-Making Lessons From The World Cup Firstly, regression to the mean is commonly not recognized. Spain had a very…
Category: Decision Making
Penalty Kicks and Mixed Strategy
As we move into the knockout stages of the World Cup [written in 2014] the specter of penalty kicks raises its ugly head. Penalty kicks are awarded as punishments during the game. They are also used to break ties at the end of the game. Penalty kicks are especially interesting for researchers. They represent an excellent chance…
Hot Hands, Runs of Form and Perceptions of Randomness
World Cup [2014] post 2. It is hard to watch sport without screaming at the commentators: “what are you talking about”. I don’t say this to criticize commentators. Almost anyone forced to speak for 90 minutes straight will say a bunch of things that, to put it charitably, don’t make a lot of sense. Much…
Who Will Win The World Cup?
With the World Cup about to start [written in 2014] it is an excellent time to consider what statistics can tell us about sport and how people think about probabilities. So who will win the world Cup? Soccernomics Stefan Szymanski has a series of books explaining the economics of sport. His book with Simon Kuper…
Survey Methodology And The Future Of West Ham United
West Ham United, the English football (soccer) club I support, hasn’t seen much recent success. (Written in 2014, as I revise this in 2021 things are better). The fans, in a fine example of optimism bias, expect the team to win while playing with a certain élan. In 2011, after a disastrous few years, Sam Allardyce was…
Making Your Future Self Happy
I’m traveling to my ten-year MBA reunion [written in 2014]. As such, it seems an appropriate time to consider how we predict the future. Ten years ago I would never have predicted that I’d be a marketing professor living in Canada [now in US]. Interestingly, I wonder whether I would even have wanted to become…
Bidding For Candy
My Easter post on candy bars leaves me pondering where academia would be without chocolate. Many experiments over the years have entailed giving experimental subjects, mostly students, candy. You give them this either as compensation or as part of the experiment. Then you often see them bidding for candy. Why Candy? Interestingly candy may work…
Deep Rationality
Rationality is a topic which you can devote years of study to without making much progress. This is because one problem is that everyone means different things by rationality. It is not just marketers disagreeing with economists, who are disagreeing with psychologists. There are also major cleavages within disciplines. One perspective from evolutionary psychologists is…
People, Buses, And Another Complaint About Jim Collins
Jim Collin’s books are well written but often readers, and probably Collins himself, may think Collins’ books contain “scientifically proven” advice. At best, Collin’s work should only suggest approaches. What is the complaint about Jim Collins? A Complaint About Jim Collins Many scholars criticize Collins’ methodology. I sympathize with many of the critics. Here, however,…
Managerial Advice From The Trolls In Frozen
I recently read the following: “People often regret not getting rid of problem staff soon enough”. This struck me as emblematic of everything wrong with business advice. It was glib, unsupported by evidence, and designed to resonate with our biases. Better to take managerial advice from the trolls in Frozen. Regret Sure some managers will…
