I enjoyed the book Super Crunchers. It is a couple of years old [in 2014] but it still reads well. Perhaps some of the surprise people might have had when it was published may have dissipated. In recent years things only the rare few knew about, e.g. metadata and data warehouses, have become staples of dinnertime conversation. It…
Category: Decision Making
Fairness and Channel Coordination
Fairness matters in life. People are motivated to achieve fair outcomes. (Although people are generally quicker to notice shares that are unfair to them than to other people.) Given business is a human social endeavor it shouldn’t be a huge surprise that fairness matters in business too. Adding fairness concerns to models of how business works…
Too Much Information
Peter Shawn Taylor’s article in the July issue [2014] of Canadian Business tackled an interesting issue. Can we give consumers too much information? The Problem Of Too Much Information In Disclosures Consumers need adequate information to reward marketers offering a good a deal. As such, information is generally a good thing. That said, long legal disclaimers…
Basking In Reflected Glory
My final World Cup-related post illustrates a psychological phenomenon. People like to proclaim their allegiance to groups. They are basking in reflected glory. Who Are Your Team? Interestingly, the groups we choose to associate with change depending upon how the groups perform. This is because people associate with achievements that are not their own but that…
Six Decision-Making Lessons From The World Cup
Departing from my usual structure of analyzing a single topic I thought I’d illustrate decision making lessons with examples from the World Cup. (This post on the 6 decision-making lessons from the world cup was written in 2014). Three Decision-Making Lessons From The World Cup Firstly, regression to the mean is commonly not recognized. Spain had a very…
Penalty Kicks and Mixed Strategy
As we move into the knockout stages of the World Cup [written in 2014] the specter of penalty kicks raises its ugly head. Penalty kicks are awarded as punishments during the game. They are also used to break ties at the end of the game. Penalty kicks are especially interesting for researchers. They represent an excellent chance…
Hot Hands, Runs of Form and Perceptions of Randomness
World Cup [2014] post 2. It is hard to watch sport without screaming at the commentators: “what are you talking about”. I don’t say this to criticize commentators. Almost anyone forced to speak for 90 minutes straight will say a bunch of things that, to put it charitably, don’t make a lot of sense. Much…
Who Will Win The World Cup?
With the World Cup about to start [written in 2014] it is an excellent time to consider what statistics can tell us about sport and how people think about probabilities. So who will win the world Cup? Soccernomics Stefan Szymanski has a series of books explaining the economics of sport. His book with Simon Kuper…
Survey Methodology And The Future Of West Ham United
West Ham United, the English football (soccer) club I support, hasn’t seen much recent success. (Written in 2014, as I revise this in 2021 things are better). The fans, in a fine example of optimism bias, expect the team to win while playing with a certain élan. In 2011, after a disastrous few years, Sam Allardyce was…
Making Your Future Self Happy
I’m traveling to my ten-year MBA reunion [written in 2014]. As such, it seems an appropriate time to consider how we predict the future. Ten years ago I would never have predicted that I’d be a marketing professor living in Canada [now in US]. Interestingly, I wonder whether I would even have wanted to become…
