Paul Ehrlich wrote The Population Bomb in 1968. I read a version printed in 1988 which had a 1978 update. It is a gloomy book that makes bold claims of famine and crises. There have certainly been problems in the last 55 years but nothing like Ehrlich predicted. It is an over-the-top book written by someone who seemed to crave attention. I am grateful that Ehrlich was wrong, but you have to wonder about the author. He sees population as a disaster, and seems proud of himself for reviving Malthusian thinking. This should tell you pretty much all you need to know (see here). There are useful comments in the book, he does have some gems hidden in there if you plow through enough mud, but overall the book is a real problem.
The Population Bomb
Paul Ehrlich wanted to bring his views about population, and the need for population control, to the world. You have to say he succeeded. The book was dramatic, grabbing the reader with a doom and gloom story of mass starvation. For extra fun, he threw in disease and nuclear war. When you are doing disaster porn, why not really go for it? I have read that he thinks the scenarios, fictionalized disaster stories, were a mistake. They are certainly a weird addition to the book, but at least he emphasizes that they are works of fiction.
Moving past the scenarios let us turn to the substance of his thesis.
Was He Right? Was Starvation Going To Spike?
No.
No, he wasn’t right.
Look at this for a particularly insightful gem of wisdom.
But, on the bright side, it is clear that fewer and fewer people in the future will be obese.
Ehrlich, 1978, page 32
His gloom and doom predictions didn’t arise and he doesn’t seem to have nailed other predictions either.
Trust Him, He Is An Expert
As is typical in these sorts of things, (see the work of Jason Hickel here, here, and here), there is a determination of what is best for us that will made by wise people. In Ehrlich’s book, it is the optimum population that will be set by a committee. Then the population will come down to this optimum number.
Even if you buy it up to now, the challenge is how do you cut population? There are some things that seem obvious and on these actions, I would totally agree with Ehrlich. People should have access to contraception so they don’t have bigger families than they want. Note that people seem to be doing this job quite well worldwide nowadays. Family sizes have dramatically fallen pretty much worldwide. He had a few financial incentives for this. Luxury taxes on cribs and diapers especially seemed an interesting choice for big taxes — luckily the wise people who set policy in Ehrlich’s world won’t need to get elected.
That said, some of his specific suggestions, especially related to the USA, simply don’t seem dramatic enough when you are trying to defuse a bomb. The book reads like someone screaming fire in a crowded theatre and then telling people that they all really had better leave swiftly at the end of the movie.
Coercion: You Know You Want To
Still, he did have some sticks. If people won’t do what he wants, by jingo, he does have an alternative.
We must have population control at home, hopefully through changes in our value system, but by compulsion if voluntary methods fail.
Ehrlich, 1978, page xi-ii
Still, it is mostly foreigners that he had in his sights as he didn’t want to piss off Americans too much. Yes, compulsory sterilization was part of his plan for non-Americans. Who would do it? When would they do it? I guess the experts would decide if we have enough little Neils in the world. His plan is currently vague.
Ehrlich didn’t want to be seen as a total monster. There were a couple of comments about Americans showing the way through self-restraint before bullying the rest of the world. But don’t worry, if he has his choice, Americans will bully, and the stick is there.
Coercion? Perhaps, but coercion in a good cause.
Ehrlich, 1978, page 151/2
That is alright then.
Population As A Disaster
Ehrlich just doesn’t seem to like people. He is almost begrudging when saying that falling death rates is a good thing. You don’t need to be a demographer to know that death is actually bad.
Ehrlich clearly faced pushback from some people who saw the (rather obvious) problem that this could get pretty racist, very quickly. (BTW him saying that the New World was “virtually unpopulated” (page 154) when Europeans arrived hasn’t aged well). Still, he was keen to say his plan wasn’t racist. He even had a few lines against racism. Yet, I never quite saw how he planned to compel people without running the risk of less powerful groups being the ones who faced the most compulsion. Turning on the less powerful seems to be a fairly common theme in history. As such, you really need a proper answer to the problem of who gets compelled and how if compulsion is your plan.
Thankfully The Bomb Threat Wasn’t Genuine
Overall, Ehrlich sets a scene of panic and disaster but largely punted on any meaningful public policy prescription for the US. He is keen to tell us about a crisis but it felt like he hadn’t given solutions any meaningful thought. I’m really pleased his thinking is now very much out of date.
Read: Paul R. Ehrlich (1978) The Population Bomb, Ballantine, New York,